2021 NRL Round 9 Tips
6/5/2021
Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.
This Weeks Tips!
Bet Type | Team | Stake/ Units | Odds | Bookie |
---|---|---|---|---|
Line | Storm -8 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Multi | *See Game 1* | 1.5 | $4.00 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 2* | 1.5 | $2.05 | Sportsbet |
Line | Roosters +4.5 | 1.5 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Multi | *See Game 5* | 1 | $4.00 | Sportsbet |
H2H | Broncos | 1.5 | $2.55 | Neds |
Multi | *See Game 6* | 1 | $4.00 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 6* | 0.5 | $13.50 | Sportsbet |
...... | ||||
Total Stake: | 10.5 | Profit/ Loss: | 4.575 |
Game 1: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm
Thursday 7:50pm AEST
Huge blow for the Rabbitohs with Adam Reynolds, Cameron Murray, Campbell Graham and Jaxson Paulo all injured, they do get back Tevita Tatola though. The Storm are still missing Ryan Papenhuyzen but Nelson Asofa-Solomona does make a return. This game is tough to pick with the injuries on both sides, and the home ground advantage for the Rabbitohs. The best avenue is to go for the 1st half 2nd half bets, with the Rabbitohs having a slight advantage in the 2nd half and the Storm having a huge advantage in the first despite losing the first half last week to the Sharks.
Bet tips: • Storm -8 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 59% chance
                 • Multi - Storm H2H and Storm +1.5 1st Half Line and Rabbitohs +4.5 2nd Half Line at $4 on Sportsbet - 30% chance
Game 2: Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks
Friday 6:00pm AEST
Braden Hamlin-Uele from the Sharks is the only out for this game. Sharks have been on a form slump ever since they sacked their head coach and it doesn’t get easier for them against the Panthers. The Panthers hold a huge 2nd half advantage over the Sharks so that's what we’re going after in this game.
Bet tips: • Multi - Panthers -10.5 Line and Panthers -9.5 2nd Half Line at $2.05 on Sportsbet - 50% chance
Game 3: Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters
Friday 7:55pm AEST
The Roosters lose 4 quality players in Brett Morris, Lindsay Collins, Sam Verrills and Sitili Tupouniua, but they do get back James Tedesco and Daniel Suluka-Fifita. The Model ranks the Roosters ahead of the Eels and the Eels have actually been underperforming at home as well.Even with the injuries the Roosters at +4.5 is a good bet.
Bet tips: • Roosters +4.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 53% chance
Game 4: Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 3:00pm AEST
The Raiders get back Josh Papalii and Geogre Williams, while the Knights lose Blake Green but Hymel Hunt does make a return. Both Teams on a form slump, too much uncertainty to touch this one.
Bet tips: No Bets
Game 5: Wests Tigers vs Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 5:30pm AEST
No Tommy Talau for the Tigers, with Jacob Liddle coming into the 17. The Titans get Tino Fa'asuamaleaui back from suspension, but Corey Thompson is missing with an injury. Home ground advantage is a strange one in this match up, Tigers prefer away games whilst the Titans perform better at home. Titans hold a huge advantage over the Tigers in the first half, with the Tigers having the second half advantage.
Bet tips: • Multi - Titans -2.5 1st Half Line and Tigers +2.5 2nd Half Line at $4.00 on Sportsbet - 30% chance
Game 6: North QLD Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos
Saturday 7:35pm AEST
Jake Clifford replaces Ben Hampton in the halves and Javid Bowen replaces Justin O’Neil in the centres. The Broncos squad is unchanged for the first time this year. Home ground advantage goes to the Cowboys and I have been saying for months that the Broncos are a different team at home, at home their the Team that beats the Titans and the team that nearly beats the Panthers, and away their the team that loses by double digits. Looking at the away games that they have played, all the opposition has been against top 8 teams, Titans, Storm, Rabbitohs and Eels, so their away score is slanted a little bit. Overall the model actually rates the Broncos higher than the Cowboys, especially in the first half, the Cowboys still have the edge in the second half.
Bet tips: • Broncos H2H at $2.55 on Neds - 50% chance
                 • Multi - Broncos +2.5 1st Half Line and Cowboys -2.5 2nd Half Line at $4 on Sportsbet - 30% chance
                 • Multi - Broncos H2H and Cowboys -2.5 2nd Half Line at $13.5 on Sportsbet - 15% chance
Game 7: Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors
Sunday 2:00pm AEST
Bookies got this one right, no value on either side.
Bet tips: No Bets
Game 8: St-George Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Sunday 4:05pm AEST
Both Dragons and Bulldogs are too unpredictable to confidently bet on either of them.
Bet tips: No Bets