2021 NRL Round 6 Tips
13/4/2021
Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.
This Weeks Tips!
Bet Type | Team | Stake/ Units | Odds | Bookie |
---|---|---|---|---|
Line | Broncos +26.5 | 1.5 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Line | Sharks -1 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
2nd Half Line | Roosters +5.5 | 2 | $1.91 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 3* | 1.5 | $4.00 | Sportsbet |
Line | Rabbitohs -17.5 | 0.5 | $1.90 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
H2H | Eels | 1 | $2.20 | Bet365 |
H2H | Bulldogs | 1.5 | $2.75 | Bet365 |
...... | ||||
Total Stake: | 10 | Profit/ Loss: | -4.8 |
Game 1: Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers
Thursday 7:50pm AEST
Panthers are unchanged heading into the match, while the Broncos have dropped Anthony Milford, Ben Te’o and Tesi Niu. Replacing Milford in the halves is Tom Dearden and Brodie Croft, Jesse Arthers comes in for Tesi, and Patty Carigan replaces Ben. The Broncos are $12 with Sportsbet coming in as heavy underdogs against an unbeaten Panthers side. While I don’t expect the Broncos to win, they are a better team when they are playing at Suncorp Stadium and with $2 lines on Thursdays and Fridays only, +26.5 isn’t too bad.
Bet tips: • Broncos +26.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 53% chance
Game 2: Newcastle Knights vs Cronulla Sharks
Friday 6:00pm AEST
Kurt Mann and Bradman Best make a big return for the Knights, while the Sharks lose both Josh Dugan and captain Wade Graham to Head injuries. However they welcome back Briton Nikora who goes into Wade Graham's second row position and Siosifa Talakai who goes to the bench pushing Connor Tracey into Josh Dugan’s centre role. The Sharks players coming in almost cancel out the players injured except now they don’t have any backs on the bench in case any backs get injured during the game, which has happened for the last 3 games for the Sharks. The Knights will be a better team than what they were last week with the inclusion of their five-eighth and their star centre and the Sharks are dealing with some off field issues right now with their coach being replaced next year. All of this accounted for the model heavily rates the Sharks above the Knights, and since they are a high points team who consistently beats teams that are below them, its nearly always a good idea to go the Sharks in the line when they are the favourites, and at -1 it shouldn’t be too hard for them.
Bet tips: • Sharks -1 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 57% chance
Game 3: Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters
Friday 7:55pm AEST
The Storm are unchanged with the chance of Brenko Lee returning to the side if he’s fit. The Roosters are missing Freddy Lussick after he suffered a broken arm in the match against the Sharks last week and Ben Marschke is named in the hooker role but has to win his judiciary on Tuesday night to play against the Storm this week. The model actually rates a full strength Roosters ahead of the Storm, but with the missing players and home ground advantage the Storm definitely deserve to be favourites. However, the model has the Roosters as heavy favourites for the second half, with the Storm heavy favourites for the 1st Half, so Rooster +5.5 in the second half at $1.91 is a very good bet, and you can multi that with the Storm winning for $4 odds which is fantastic odds.
Bet tips: • Roosters +5.5 2nd Half Line at $1.91 on Sportsbet - 62% chance
                 • Multi - Roosters +5.5 2nd Half Line and Storm H2H at $4.00 on Sportsbet - 33% chance
Game 4: Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans
Saturday 3:00pm AEST
Tom Trbojevic is back replacing the injured Dylan Walker, and Jack Gosiewski is out with Cade Cust coming into the side for Manly, while the Titans are unchanged. Turbo is a massive inclusion for Manly, so the Bookies might take a while to adjust their odds. Come back closer to the game because if the odds move in our favour, a play on the Titans could have some good value.
Bet tips: No bets
Game 5: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers
Saturday 5:30pm AEST
Cody Walker is back from suspension pushing Benji Marshall back to his number 14 role which pushes Dean Hawkins out of the lineup for South Sydney, while the Tigers replace Joey Leilua for Asu Kepaoa in the centres. Odds aren’t big enough for the Rabbitohs at only $1.10, and I would make a bigger play on the line for Rabbitohs at -17.5 if it were $2 but sadly it’s only $1.90 so I’ll only make a small play.
Bet tips: • Rabbitohs -17.5 at $1.90 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 53% chance
Game 6: Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels
Saturday 7:35pm AEST
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Ryan James are out after both suffered injuries during the game against the Panthers, Charnze is replaced by Caleb Aekins and Emre Guler comes in for Ryan James and Curtis Scott returns to the team pushing Seb Kris to the reserves. The Eels are missing five-eighth Dylan Brown who is replaced by Will Smith and Keegan Hipgrave comes in for the missing Ray Stone. I like the Eels with the underdog money, with the missing players from both teams almost cancelling each other out.
Bet tips: • Eels H2H at $2.20 on Bet365 - 47% chance
Game 7: St-George Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors
Sunday 4:05pm AEST
The Dragons are unchanged while the Warriors get back Peta Hiku in the centres and Bunty Afoa on the bench. No bets on this one.
Bet tips: No Bets on this game
Game 8: North QLD Cowboys vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Sunday 6:15pm AEST
For the Cowboys, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is out with an ankle injury being replaced by Justin O’Neill, and Jason Taumalolo is named at lock despite being there last week and not playing. The Bulldogs are missing captain Josh Jackson who is replaced by Corey Waddel in the second row. The Bulldogs while they deserve to be slight underdogs only for the possible inclusion of Jason Taumalolo, at $2.75 they are a good bet.
Bet tips: • Bulldogs H2H at $2.75 on Bet365 - 45% chance