2021 NRL Round 5 Tips
6/4/2021 - Updated: 8/4/2021
Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.
This Weeks Tips!
Bet Type | Team | Stake/ Units | Odds | Bookie |
---|---|---|---|---|
Line | Rabbitohs -20.5 | 1.5 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Line | Warriors -7.5 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
H2H | Raiders | 1 | $3.00 | Sportsbet |
Points | Ryan Papenhuyzen | 2.5 | $1.40 | Sportsbet |
H2H | Sharks | 1 | $3.40 | Sportsbet |
...... | ||||
Total Stake: | 8 | Profit/ Loss: | -1.5 |
Game 1: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos
Thursday 7:50pm AEST
The line for this game is -20.5 for the Rabbitohs, and with Neds and Ladbrokes only doing the $2 lines for Thursday and Friday Night games we must pay extra attention to them. The -21.5 line last week proved too small for the Rabbitohs against the Bulldogs, but a few things to note coming into this game. The Bulldogs lost their five-eighth Lachlan Lewis before the Rabbitohs scored any points, the Broncos themselves beat the Bulldogs by over 20 points in the week prior, and the Rabbitohs lose one of the best players in Cody Walker to suspension who was involved in 3 of the Rabbitohs 6 tries last week. On the other side, the Rabbitohs are playing at home and the model shows that the Broncos don’t do well away from Suncorp, which is where they were when they beat the Bulldogs by 24 points. Cody Walker is replaced by Benji Marshall who is another great try assisting five-eighth, and the Broncos have their own missing players as well in Patrick Carrigan and Herbie Farnworth. After taking all this into account it's worth going Rabbitohs -20.5 in the line if they can collectively replace Cody Walker's support play which is where a lot of trys can be scored against the Broncos.
Bet tips: • Rabbitohs -20.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 53% chance
Game 2: New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagels
Friday 6:00pm AEST
The model heavily favours the Warriors, even without Addin Fonua-Blake the Warriors at -7.5 is a good bet against a struggling Manly outfit.
Bet tips: • Warriors -7.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 56% chance
Game 3: Penrith Panthers vs Canberra Raiders
Friday 7:50pm AEST
Panthers are unchanged, while the Raiders get Joe Tapine back. The Model likes the Raiders in this one, but with the Panthers home ground advantage I’ll give them the slight edge but at $3.00 the Raiders H2H is a good bet.
Bet tips: • Raiders H2H at $3.00 on Sportsbet - 45% chance
Game 4: Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 3:00pm AEST
Not enough value on the Titans and Newcastle are missing too many players to make a play on them.
Bet tips: No bets on this game
Game 5: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm
Saturday 5:30pm AEST
The Storm are $1.03 on Sportsbet which is one of the worst odds I've ever seen in NRL before a game has started. No value here in the H2H markets, however Sportsbet have a market for Ryan Papenhuyzen to outscore the Bulldogs by himself and with him being the goal kicker the only way this doesn’t hit is if he gets injured during the game, so at $1.40 I think it’s good value.
Bet tips: • Ryan Papenhuyzen to individually score more points than the Bulldogs at $1.40 on Sportsbet - 79% chance
Game 6: Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks
Saturday 7:35pm AEST
The Roosters are unchanged and the Sharks get Jesse Ramien back from suspension, who pushes Connor Tracey back to his number 14 role. This game is a good match up, it’s one of the best defensive teams in the Roosters facing one of the best attacking teams in the Sharks. While the model rates the Roosters ahead of the Sharks, it doesn’t rate them high enough to justify a $3.40 underdog price tag for the Sharks. If you think the Sharks have at least a 30% chance of winning then it's a good bet to go the Sharks.
Bet tips: • Sharks H2H at $3.40 on Sportsbet - 39% chance
Game 7: Wests Tigers vs North QLD Cowboys
Sunday 4:05pm AEST
A play on the Tigers could have happended, but with the return of Jason Taumalolo and Kyle Feldt we might leave it alone.
Bet tips: No Bets on this game
Game 8: Parramatta Eels vs St-George Dragons
Sunday 6:15pm AEST
Not enough value on either side.
Bet tips: No bets