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2021 NRL Round 4 Tips

30/3/2021

Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.

This Weeks Tips!

Bet Type Team Stake/ Units Odds Bookie
Line Panthers -18 1 $2.00 Neds/ Ladbrokes
Line Rabbitohs -21.5 2 $2.00 Neds/ Ladbrokes
Line Sharks -8.5 1.5 $2.00 Neds/ Ladbrokes
H2H Titans 2 $2.30 Ladbrokes
H2H Warriors 2 $2.80 Bet365
......
Total Stake: 8.5 Profit/ Loss: 0.5

Game 1: Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers

Thursday 7:10pm AEST

Nathan Cleary’s back for the Panthers, but Dylan Edwards is out, with Stephen Crichton replacing him at fullback and Matt Burton coming into the centres, however I won’t be surprised if the team is changed before the match starts. Manly’s squad is unchanged heading into the game. With the Panthers at $1.08 there’s no value on this match at all in the head to head, but the line is -18 which seems easy for a team like the Panthers, but with the key changes the confidence level isn’t as high.

Bet tips: • Panthers -18 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 51% chance

Game 2: Canterbury Bulldogs vs South-Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday 3:05pm AEST

Rabbitohs unchanged going into the game, with a couple of changes for the Bulldogs. Jeremy Marshall-King is out with an injury and Josh Jackson is out due to suspension, replacing them are Dean Britt and Jackson Topine. In other changes coach Trent Barret has dropped Jake Averillo for Lachlan Lewis in the Halves, and Nick Meany goes to fullback to swap positions with Corey Allan who will go to the wing. Similarly to Thursday's game I like the Rabbitohs at -21.5, but with the Rabbitohs team at near full strength I’m more confident.

Bet tips: • Rabbitohs -21.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/ Ladbrokes - 55% chance

Game 3: Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos

Friday 7:05pm AEST

Ryan Papenhuyzen is back for the Storm pushing Nicho Hynes to the reserves. Broncos get some big players back in Payne Haas, Matt Lodge, and John Asiata. I like the Broncos line in this one at +20.5 but I’m not convinced they can play well away from Suncorp and with the Storm's home ground advantage I can’t bet either side.

Bet tips: No Bets on this game

Game 4: Cronulla Sharks vs North QLD Cowboys

Saturday 4:30pm AEST

Briton Nikora is replaced by Teig Wilton in the second row, Sione Katoa is replaced by Mawene Hiroti at wing and Braydon Trindall finds himself at number 14 for the Sharks. Mitchell Dunn, Reuben Cotter, Jake Clifford and Esan Marsters have all been dropped by Cowboys coach Todd Payten, with Ben Hampton go into halfback, Justin O’Neill coming into the centres and Ben Condon and Shane Wright both go into the second row. Injuries are worrying for the Sharks but with the home ground advantage I like them at -8.5 against the Cowboys.

Bet tips: • Sharks -8.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 53% chance

Game 5: Gold Coast Titans vs Canberra Raiders

Saturday 6:35pm AEST

Titans unchanged with some changes for the Raiders heading into Saturday Nights game. The Raiders are missing Curtis Scott and Joseph Tapine, replacing them are Seb Kris, and Dunamis Lui. The Model ranks the Titans ahead of the Raiders in this match up, and with the home ground advantage and the underdog price tag I can’t miss this one.

Bet tips: • Titans H2H at $2.30 on Neds/ Ladbrokes - 50% chance

Game 6: Newcastle Knights vs St-George Dragons

Sunday 4:05pm AEST

No Ben Hunt or Jack Bird for the Dragons, being replaced by Adam Clune and Brayden Wiliame. Knights only ranked ahead of the Dragons by a little bit, but with the key loss of Ben Hunt I can’t get the Dragons at the underdog price.

Bet tips: No bets on this game

Game 7: Sydney Roosters vs New Zealand Warriors

Sunday 6:15pm AEST

Peta Hiku is replaced by Marcelo Montoya at centre for the Warriors. The Roosters are missing Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Lachlan Lam, Lindsay Collins and Luke Keary, with Jake Friend still missing as well. With Luke Keary out Sam Walker makes his debut in the halfback position with Drew Hutchison next to him at five-eighth. Even with all those injuries the Roosters deserve to be favourites at home but at $2.70 the Warriors have a good enough chance to beat them.

Bet tips: • Warriors H2H at $2.70 on Neds/ Ladbrokes - 48% chance

Game 8: Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels

Sunday 4:0pm AEST

Ryan Matterson is back for the Eels, which pushes Keegan Hipgrave to the reserves. Odds makers got this one right no value on either side here.

Bet tips: No bets on this game