2021 NRL Round 3 Tips
23/3/2021
Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.
This Weeks Tips!
Bet Type | Team | Stake/ Units | Odds | Bookie |
---|---|---|---|---|
Line | Storm +1.5 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Line | Dragons -1.5 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Line | Broncos -3.5 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Line | Knights -9.5 | 2 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
...... | ||||
Total Stake: | 8 | Profit/ Loss: | 0 |
Game 1: Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm
Thursday 7:05pm AEST
No Felise Kaufusi for the Storm, and while Nathan Cleary is listed to play there speculation that he won’t play after the head knock that he suffered last week, because of this I believe the Storm are overpriced at +1.5. If Nathan doesn’t play for the Panthers they will be without their Halfback and hooker in Api Koroisau, which leads to the Storm having great value at +1.5.
Bet tips: • Storm +1.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 52% chance
Game 2: St-George Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles
Friday 5:00pm AEST
No Andrew Davey for the Sea Eagles being the only change in lineups for this game. While Manly lost to two great teams they lost convincingly, leading to Dragons -1.5 being some great value for St-George at home.
Bet tips: • Dragons -1.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 55% chance
Game 3: South-Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters
Friday 7:05pm AEST
Angus Chrichton and Victor Radley are back for the Roosters forward and Josh Mansour comes back into the team replacing Jaxson Paulo. This match up looks like it's going to be the game of the week and while it's usually best to go the underdog in this situation being the Souths, The addition of Victor Radley could be huge for the Roosters. So I’ll leave this game alone at this stage.
Bet tips: No Bets on this game
Game 4: Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors
Saturday 2:00pm AEST
Raiders captain Jarrod Croker comes back into the side, and Sean O’Sullivan is set to make his Warriors debut, replacing the injured Channel Harris-Tevita. Really liked the Warriors odds heading into this one with the Raiders only just getting the win last week, but with no Harris-Tevita and Jarrod Croker’s addition I must leave this one alone.
Bet tips: No Bets on this game
Game 5: Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday 4:30pm AEST
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Raymond Faitala-Mariner are out for the Bulldogs, with the Broncos side unchanged since their loss against the Titans last week. With both sides without a win it's hard to gauge how good these teams are relative to each other, but with the home ground advantage for the Broncos I’ll be happy to get them at -3.5.
Bet tips: • Broncos -3.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 54% chance
Game 6: Parramatta Eels vs Cronulla Sharks
Saturday 6:35pm AEST
Ray Stone comes in for Ryan Matterson for the Eels after he suffered a head injury, and for the Sharks, Connor Tracey comes into the centre position for Mawene Hiroti and Teig Wilton comes into the squad in that number 14 role. Not enough value on either side to bet on anyone in this match.
Bet tips: No Bets on this game
Game 7: Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers
Sunday 3:05pm AEST
Kurt Mann comes back into the squad replacing Phoenix Crossland for the Knights, and James Roberts comes back into the Tigers Squad with Joey Leilua dropped by coach Micheal Maguire. Knights have the better forward pack in this battle and with the home ground advantage they should get this done comfortably. Knights -9.5.
Bet tips: • Knights -9.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 52% chance
Game 8: North-QLD Cowboys vs Gold Coast Titans
Sunday 5:15pm AEST
Murray Taulagi comes in for the suspended Kyle Feldt in the Cowboys lineup, while Ash Taylor is out with a hand injury, he will be replaced by Tanah Boyd for the Titans. I like the Titans in this match up, but with the news of Ash Taylor's injury coming out today I expect the market will be slow to react, at the time of writing this the line is -6 for the Titans. I believe anything under that will be good value, so I will update the page if the line moves in our direction, so check back in later in the week.
Bet tips: No Bets on this game