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2021 NRL Round 2 Tips

16/3/2021

Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.

This Weeks Tips!

Bet Type Team Stake/ Units Odds Bookie
Any Time Try Scorer Maika Sivo 2 $2.40 Neds/ Ladbrokes
H2H Bulldogs 2 $6.50 Sportsbet
Multi *See Game 8* 2 $4.00 Sportsbet
......
Total Stake: 6 Profit/ Loss: -1.2

Game 1: Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm

Thursday 7:05pm AEST

Similar lineups to last week for both teams. After not having crowds for most of last year, one of the biggest factors that influenced last week's games was the home field advantage, Eels and Sharks being the only two teams to win away from home, with the Broncos surprising a lot of people in the first half against the Eels. The Storm were one of the teams where the home field advantage played a big part in their win. The Eels have one of the best records at their home stadium when crowds are attending which will play a big role in their game on Thursday, but after their performance against the Broncos and the Storms performance against the Rabbitohs the Eels deserve to be the underdogs. I would just bet on the Eels but I've found a bet with more value, in Maika Sivo to score a try at $2.40 with Neds or Ladbrokes. All three of the Rabbitohs' tries last week were on the Storm’s right edge with new recruits Remis Smith and George Jennings at right centre and right wing. With Sivo on the Eels left edge surely he can get a try in front of his home crowd, I give it a good 50% chance.

Bet tips: • Maika Sivo Anytime try scorer at $2.40 on Neds/Ladbrokes - 50% chance

Game 2: New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights

Friday 5:00pm AEST

Adam Pompey replaces the injured Euan Aitken in the centres for the Warriors, while the Knights remain the same as last week. Two big forward packs going against each other with Warriors having the “home away from home” field advantage. Knights a slight favourite at $1.85 not giving enough room to bet on either side.

Bet tips: No Bets on this game

Game 3: Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos

Friday 7:05pm AEST

Philip Sami replaces Brian Kelly in the centres for the Titans and No Matt Lodge for the Broncos. Still uncertain about both of these teams so staying clear.

Bet tips: No Bets on this game

Game 4: Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers

Saturday 2:00pm AEST

Bulldogs looked good early in attack last week but weren’t so good in defence, while the Panthers dominated like they did last year. At $6.50 the Bulldogs being the biggest underdogs of the week, look like they’re being counted out already, but at that price they only need a 15.5% chance of winning to be a good bet. With Sportsbets H2H special if the Bulldogs score a try in the first 5 minutes (like they did last week against the Knights) you get paid out. I give the Bulldogs a 20% chance including the special.

Bet tips: • Bulldogs H2H at $6.50 on Sportsbet - 20% chance (with special)

Game 5: Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Saturday 4:30pm AEST

Rabbitohs at $1.25 is too low considering they are playing away, but I don’t want to bet on the Sea Eagles after last week. No bets on this one.

Bet tips: No Bets on this game

Game 6: North QLD Cowboys vs St George Dragons

Saturday 6:35pm AEST

Was looking forward to betting on the Cowboys in this one at home but at $1.50 there isn’t enough value to bet on it.

Bet tips: No Bets on this game

Game 7: Wests Tigers vs Sydney Roosters

Sunday 3:05pm AEST

Roosters missing Jake Friend, Angus Crichton and Adam Keighran could be a good chance to bet on the Tigers with Adam Doueihi’s return and the home ground advantage, but at +11.5 It's hard to imagine the Tigers doing better than they did against the Raiders last week (losing 30 to 12).

Bet tips: No Bets on this game

Game 8: Cronulla Sharks vs Raiders

Sunday 5:15pm AEST

Mawene Hiroti replaces the suspended Jesse Ramien in the centres for the Sharks, while the Raiders remain the same. While it's too early in the season to determine which teams perform better in particular halves, the Sharks and Raiders were consistent with last year in the Sharks doing better before half time and the Raiders winning the second half. When doing this kind of same game multi, Sportsbet thinks the two bets are inversely related to each other which can be true, but many times these bets can be independent, so the odds always look really good with this type of bet. The bet is to multi the Sharks in the first half line of +3.5 and the Raiders in the second half line of -3.5, I give the multi at least a 30% chance of hitting, so at $4.00 odds it’s very appealing.

Bet tips: • Same Game Multi Sharks +3.5 1st Half line and Raiders -3.5 2nd Half line at $4.00 on Sportsbet - 30% chance