2021 NRL Round 14 Tips
11/6/2021
Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.
This Weeks Tips!
Bet Type | Team | Stake/ Units | Odds | Bookie |
---|---|---|---|---|
Line | Manly -5.5 | 1.5 | $2.00 | Neds/ Ladbrokes |
Multi | *See Game 1* | 1 | $5.10 | Sportsbet |
H2H | Sharks | 1 | $2.50 | Palmerbet |
1st Half Line | Roosters -5.5 | 1 | $2.06 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 3* | 1 | $4.00 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 4* | 2 | $1.47 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 4* | 1 | $3.25 | Sportsbet |
H2H | Broncos | 1 | $3.75 | Neds |
Multi | *See Game 5* | 1 | $3.80 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 6* | 1 | $2.80 | Sportsbet |
Multi | *See Game 7* | 2 | $1.54 | Sportsbet |
...... | ||||
Total Stake: | 13.5 | Profit/ Loss: | 4.08 |
Game 1: Manly Sea Eagles vs North QLD Cowboys
Friday 6:00pm AEST
Manly are missing Sean Keppie, Tevita Funa, Zac Saddler and most importantly Tom Trbojevic, and although they do get back Cade Cust, Dylan Walker and Kieran Foran, their lineup looks very similar to the team that started off the season with 4 straight losses. The Cowboys lose Jake Clifford and Kyle Feldt, which sees new recruit Tom Deardon go to halfback and Justin O'Neill go to the wing, they also get Francis Molo and Jason Taumalolo back. Both Teams usually prefer the second half, however the Cowboys only do well in either the first or the second half and not both, so we’ll look to the trend that continues to happen in some games, where the team wins the match by winning the first half, then allows the other team to win the second half. Also, look for a potential mismatch if Jason Saab lines up against Justin O’Neill on the wing.
Bet tips: • Manly -5.5 Line at $2.00 on Neds/ Ladbrokes - 55% chance
                 • Multi - Manly H2H and Manly +1.5 1st Half Line and Cowboys +2.5 2nd Half Line at $5.10 on Sportsbet - 30% chance
Game 2: Cronulla Sharks vs Penrith Panthers
Friday 7:55pm AEST
Most of the Origin players are still out for the Panthers except Apisai Koroisau and potentially Liam Martin, while Andrew Fifita returns for the Sharks. This would have been another big play against the Panthers however at $2.50 the value isn’t enough for a huge stake.
Bet tips: • Sharks H2H at $2.50 on Palmerbet - 41% chance
Game 3: Gold Coast Titans vs Sydney Roosters
Saturday 3:00pm AEST
Titans are still missing Origin players AJ Brimson and Moe Fotuaika but David Fifita and Tino Fa'asuamaleaui are back, coming off the bench though. The Roosters are missing James Tedesco, Nat Butcher and Siosiua Taukeiaho, but they do get back Angus Crichton. This game would have shaped up perfectly for a second half line for the Roosters, however with Tino and Fifita coming off the bench and the Titans last performance, they might have a slow start, so we’ll look to our multi.
Bet tips: • Roosters -6.5 1st Half Line at $2.06 on Sportsbet - 51% chance
                 • Multi - Roosters H2H and Roosters +8.5 1st Half Line and Titans +5.5 2nd Half Line at $4 on Sportsbet - 30% chance
Game 4: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
Saturday 5:30pm AEST
The Rabbitohs lose Origin players Cameron Murray, Damien Cook, Dane Gagai and Jai Arrow, while Daniel Saifiti returns for the Knights. Based on form the Rabbitohs have been doing well in the 1st half and should get it done over the Knights.
Bet tips: • Multi - Rabbitohs H2H and Rabbitohs -0.5 1st Half Line at $1.47 on Sportsbet - 70% chance
                 • Multi - Rabbitohs H2H and Rabbitohs -0.5 1st Half Line and Knights +8.5 2nd Half Line at $3.25 on Sportsbet - 35% chance
Game 5: Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos
Saturday 7:35pm AEST
Hudson Young, Joseph Tapine and Josh Papalii are back for the Raiders, while the Broncos get back Origin players Payne Haas and Xavier Coates. The model has the Broncos behind the Raiders overall but on form the Broncos are actually ahead of them. The Broncos have a good price of $3.75 needing only a 27% chance of winning to be a good bet. Also, just in case the return of some key forwards sparks some form back into the Raiders the same style of multi looks very good considering the Raiders are the worst 2nd half team in the competition.
Bet tips: • Broncos H2H at $3.75 on Neds - 40% chance
                 • Multi - Raiders H2H and Broncos +5.5 2nd Half Line at $3.8 on Sportsbet - 30% chance
Game 6: New Zealand Warriors vs Melbourne Storm
Sunday 2:00pm AEST
Warriors get Addin Fonua-Blake, Bayley Sironen, Edward Kosi, Josh Curran and Ken Maumalo back, however they do lose Reece Walsh and Rocco Berry. The Storm get Cameron Munster, Felise Kaufusi, Harry Grant, Josh Addo-Carr, Marion Seve and Tom Eisenhuth back, but lose Kenneath Bromwich and Nelson Asofa-Solomona. The Storm finally get back their Origin players, but the Warriors get back some key forwards. With Addin Fonua-Blake on the bench for the Warriors, the same style of multi that we’ve been doing all week could be a play.
Bet tips: • Multi - Storm H2H and Warriors +9.5 2nd Half Line at $2.80 on Sportsbet - 38% chance
Game 7: Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers
Sunday 4:05pm AEST
The Eels lose Reed Mahoney but get Origin player Junior Paulo back into the side, while the Tigers get Joe Ofahengaue back from Origin and replace Moses Mbye with Billy Walters. The model has the Eels well in front overall and in the first half.
Bet tips: • Multi - Eels H2H and Eels -1.5 1st Half Line at $1.54 on Sportsbet - 67% chance
Game 8: Canterbury Bulldogs vs St-George Dragons
Monday 4:00pm AEST
No bets.
Bet tips: No bets