Big changes to both sides this game, Jack De Belin, Josh Kerr, Matthew Dufty and Mikaele Ravalawa are big ins for the Dragons, but they do lose Billy Burns and Tariq Sims. The Broncos only lose Payne Haas and Xavier Coates to Origin, but they do get back Alex Glenn, Matthew Lodge, Tyson Gamble and potentially Jordan Riki, they also have young gun Selwyn Cobbo make his debut on the wing. Both teams lose some good players but both teams also get back quality players as well, the model has the Dragons just over the Broncos overall but the Broncos have the slight advantage on form. With the players coming back and the home ground advantage the Dragons do deserve to be favourites but not by too much. Since the Broncos are $3.50 underdogs they only need a 30% chance of winning for them to be a good bet. While I believe that is a good bet, we’ll look to the $2 lines for some extra chance and value.

Tigers are only missing Joe Ofahengaue, while the Panthers are missing Apisai Koroisau, Brian To'o, Isaah Yeo, Jarome Luai, Liam Martin, Moses Leota and Nathan Cleary however they do get back Dylan Edwards at fullback. Both back lines still look very complete, however the Panthers are playing with their 2nd choice halves in Matt Burton and Tyrone May. The model obviously has the Panthers over the Tigers but with all the exclusions they won’t be at their full ranking. Tigers at $2.78 is a good bet however I see one of two things happening in this game, the Tigers winning because of the missing Origin players, or the Panthers just winning by a lot like they usually do, so a slight hedge is in order.

No value here.

Newcastle are missing big men Daniel Saifiti, David Klemmer and Tyson Frizell, but they do get Jack Johns, Jake Clifford, Kurt Mann and Matt Crocker into the side. The Eels are missing Blake Ferguson and Junior Paulo, with Dylan Brown and Reagan Campbell-Gillard coming back into the side. The model has Eels but not by enough to justify $5 odd for the Knights, if you think the Knights have at least a 20% chance then they are a good bet.