The Broncos are missing Matthew Lodge and Tyson Gamble but get back Herbie Farnworth, while the Storm get back Jahrome Hughes but lose Christian Welch. The Broncos were the heaviest underdogs to get a win for season so far, last week, against a then top 4 four team in the Roosters, and that was an away game as well. The Storm are undermanned with players like Munster, Papenhuyzen and Grant missing, and with the model picking up a possibility for the Broncos in the first half and also a play for the Storm in the second, there is enough value to make a play. Also, in general the Broncos are a good play at $7 with the special on Sportsbet for an early payout if they score a try in the first 5 mins.

The Cowboys are missing some fire power in Connelly Lemuelu, Francis Molo, Lachlan Burr and most importantly Jason Taumalolo, but they do get back Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Coen Hess. The Warriors are unchanged heading into this one. The model has the Warriors in front of the Cowboys and with no Taumalolo, the Warriors deserve to be moderate favourites. The model has identified a huge advantage for the Warriors in the first half, and with the Cowboys doing well in the 2nd half at home, there’s some nice value for the first half second half plays.

The Dragons add Josh Kerr and Max Feagai to their long list of missing players, but Brayden Wiliame and Tariq Sims do come back into the side, also with news of Jack de Belin returning in the near future. The model ranks the Dragons ahead of the Tigers overall, but on form they are basically equal with the Tigers actually having the slight advantage, but both teams prefer playing away, with the Tigers having a very poor record at home, and with the Dragons at $2.55 they only need a 40% chance to win for them to a good bet.

Panthers 1st playing Bulldogs last, with $1.01 odds, no value here.

The Rabbitohs are without Jed Cartwright, Josh Mansour and Liam Knight but Cameron Murray does make a return. The Eels are missing Reagan Campbell-Gillard, but they do get back Marata Niukore. The model has the Eels over the Rabbitohs in almost every section although some only slightly, with some inclusions for the Rabbitohs and the home ground it could be a 50 50 game, in these situations we look to whoever the underdog is in this case the Eels are paying $2.30 which is good for a 50% chance or even slightly lower.

The Roosters are missing both Angus Crichton and Victor Radley to suspension, however Josh Morris does come back from injury. The Raiders with George Williams leaving the club, so he is out, but Iosia Soliola, Jack Wighton, Jordan Rapana and Josh Hodgson all make a return. The 2nd Half Line bet has failed us in the last few weeks with the team doing well in the first half but then fading away in the second and cruising to victory. However, last week the Roosters 2nd Half Line failed because they lost the game entirely and lost it very convincingly. The Model does rank the Roosters ahead of the Raiders overall and heavily in the 2nd half, while the Raiders actually have a slight advantage in the 1st half when based on form. The lone 2nd Half Line play will have another chance in this game, since the Raiders have been consistently losing the 2nd Half even to lower tier teams, and the Roosters have also been the team that if they are winning comfortably in the first half, they will continue to increase the margin in the second half.

Both teams get players back, David Fifita and Patrick Herbert for the Titans, and the Sharks get back Jesse Ramien. Ronaldo Mulitalo, Shaun Johnson and Siosifa Talakai. The model has the Titans over the Sharks, but with the key inclusions for Sharks betting on the Titans straight wouldn’t be a good bet, so we look to the first half second half plays.

Bradman Best is back for the Knights, however they are still missing Kalyn Ponga. The Sea Eagles are rated the highest based on form by the model, and the Knights are in the bottom 3 on form. With their main form of points out in Ponga, the Line for the Sea Eagles looks very good, good enough for a very big play.