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Munchy

2021 NRL Round 11 Tips

20/5/2021 - Updated 21/5/2021

Free NRL tips generated by a model that uses expected return to ensure that profit is likely made in the long run.

This Weeks Tips!

Bet Type Team Stake/ Units Odds Bookie
Line Cowboys -6 1.5 $2.00 Neds/ Ladbrokes
Multi *See Game 2* 0.5 $4.85 Sportsbet
Line Sharks -6 1.5 $2.00 Neds/ Ladbrokes
Multi *See Game 4* 0.5 $3.14 Sportsbet
2nd Half Line Roosters -11.5 1 $1.80 Neds
H2H Rabbitohs 0.5 $3.60 Bet365
Multi *See Game 7* 0.5 $4.00 Sportsbet
Multi *See Game 8* 0.5 $3.80 Sportsbet
......
Total Stake: 6.5 Profit/ Loss: 0.495

Game 1: North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights

Thursday 7:50pm AEST

The Cowboys are unchanged while the Knights are missing Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Hymel Hunt, but they do get back Blake Green in the halves. The model ranks the Cowboys ahead of the Knights, far enough to bet on the line at -6.

Bet tips: • Cowboys -6 Line at $2.00 on Neds/ Ladbrokes - 55% chance

Game 2: New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers

Friday 6:00pm AEST

Both teams are too unpredictable at this stage with the Tigers possibly being on the rise, but the Warriors have been relatively good all year, and deserve to be favourites. Update, the Warriors have named Reece Walsh to start at fullback with RTS going to the wing to replace Ken Mamaulo who is out of the game. This means that the Warriors won’t have the 2nd half spark that they had last week, and is a good time to capitalize on a trend that has been happening in games lately, which is the favourite wins the first half comfortably, then drops off to allow the underdog to win the second half but the favourite still wins the game.

Bet tips: • Multi - Warriors H2H and Warriors +3.5 1st Half Line and Tigers +3.5 2nd Half Line at $4.85 on Sportsbet - 30% chance

Game 3: Cronulla Sharks vs St-George Dragons

Friday 7:55pm AEST

The Sharks are unchanged while the Dragons have five additional players out due to injury or suspension in Josh McGuire, Matthew Dufty, Mikaele Ravalawa, Tariq Sims and Tyrell Fuimaono. While the model does have the Dragons above the Sharks, due to the long list of outs for the Dragons and the Players that were already missing like Zac Lomax, the Sharks deserve to be favourites and the line of -6 for the Sharks isn’t too bad as the Sharks are usually a high scoring team, and the with the additional sin bins the game could open up even more.

Bet tips: • Sharks -6 Line at $2.00 on Neds/ Ladbrokes - 55% chance

Game 4: Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Saturday 3:00pm AEST

The Titans are without Herman Ese’ese and Tyrone Peachy, both out due to suspension. The Bulldogs are without Joe Stimson and Tuipulotu Katao but Dylan Napa does make a return. Similarly to the Warriors game we’ll be going after the favourite to win, and the underdog in the second half.

Bet tips: • Multi - Titans H2H and Titans +9.5 1st Half Line and Bulldogs +7.5 2nd Half Line at $3.14 on Sportsbet - 36% chance

Game 5: Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday 5:30pm AEST

Joseph Suaalii is set to make his debut on the bench for the Roosters, while the Broncos are without Anthony Milford, Corey Oates, Herbie Farnworth and Jordan Riki. Last week the 2nd Half Line bets that we did on the favourites all failed due to the favourite getting too far ahead in the first half then dropping off in the second half, even when they had a good second half record, but the Roosters definitely prefer the second half and the Broncos are the second worst second half team only behind the Raiders, the Roosters are also known keep attacking in the second half when they have comfortably won the first half. So, the second half line of -11.5 doesn’t seem too bad, but bet cautiously.

Bet tips: • Roosters -11.5 2nd Half Line at $1.80 on Neds - 59% chance

Game 6: Canberra Raiders vs Melbourne Storm

Saturday 7:35pm AEST

Both teams are missing players, and both teams prefer the first half. No value on either side.

Bet tips: No bets

Game 7: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Penrith Panthers

Sunday 2:00pm AEST

The Rabbitohs are back to full strength with Latrell Mitchell, Josh Mansour and Campbell Graham coming back into the side, with the Panthers missing Dylan Edwards and Moses Leota. The model does rank the Panthers ahead of the Rabbitohs, but not by far enough to justify $3.60 odds for the Rabbitohs with home ground advantage. Also, just in case that doesn’t hit we’ll go after the same style of multi from the Warriors game and the Titans game, where we bet on the favourite to win the match and the underdog to win the 2nd half line.

Bet tips: • Rabbitohs H2H at $3.60 on Bet365 - 34% chance

                 • Multi - Panthers H2H and Panthers +10.5 1st Half Line and Rabbitohs +5.5 2nd Half Line at $4 on Sportsbet - 32% chance

Game 8: Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles

Sunday 4:05pm AEST

Manly are missing Kieran Foran and Cade Cust, while the Eels are unchanged heading into the last match of the round. Again, similarly to the Warriors Tigers game and the Titans Bulldogs game, we’ll go after the Eels to win the game but Manly to win the 2nd half.

Bet tips: • Multi - Eels H2H and Eels +11.5 1st Half Line and Sea Eagles +4.5 2nd Half Line at $3.8 on Sportsbet - 36% chance