Since this is the first week we don’t have any data for the model to go off, so these tips are mostly opinionated instead of mathematically chosen. This game is very close to call, I almost want to bet on both teams. The Storm have won every round 1 match since something like 2001, and have a home ground advantage with the crowd that they haven’t had since 2019. Also, there are no AFL games on so the whole of Melbourne could be likely to show up, which could be the reason why they always win their round 1 matches. But, with no Cameron Smith, Suliasi Vunivalu, Harry Grant, Dale Funicane, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui and Brenko Lee, they will be a worse side on paper than what they were last year. While the Rabbitohs will have a fit Latrell Mitchell, Jai Arrow, Josh Mansour and Benji Marshall as inclusions. Would have definitely picked the Rabbitohs at $2.60 but now at $1.95 it's too hard, with the line at +1 for the Rabbitohs it’s easy enough to go Rabbitohs +1 with Neds or Ladbrokes for $2.

I like the bulldogs at the underdog price in this one, but not enough to put anything on this game. The knights deserve to be the favourites with a better forward pack.

Eels definitely deserve to be heavy favourites, but at $1.30 there’s not enough value to put anything on them, and I don’t want to be that guy who puts money on the broncos after last year. The Eels at -8.5 looks good, but I’m going to stay clear.

These two teams just played each other 2 weeks ago in the trials and whilst it was a draw, before the Titans reverse grade came on the field they were winning the game. Big inclusions for both teams but I think the Titans were already a well rounded side now with some even better names, while the warriors still need a bit of work. I like the Titans even as the favourites and at the -3.5 line you can get even more value assuming you think they can win by 4 points or more.

No Turbo for Manly but they do have Kieran Foran back, while the Roosters are still the well known Roosters minus Boyd Corner, this will be a good game to gauge both sides for the rest of the season, so steering clear.

The Panthers are going to be the same team they were last year now with Charlie Stains at left wing, and Paul Momirovski at center, while the Cowboys will have mostly the same players they’ll have a different game plan and are more focused on defence. With that said the Cowboys still allowed plenty of points against the Broncos in the first half of the trial game, so the Panthers at -9.5 looks pretty appealing to me.

Raiders Heavy favourites in this one, another game where I would like to watch it to gauge how the teams are going without putting any money on it.

Final game of the week, some say the Dragons looked concerning in the trial games which is true, but they were playing against the Rabbitohs who are tipped to win the comp by most this year, and people are more so talking about how the Dragons did poorly as opposed to how the Rabbitohs did well. If the Rabbitohs dominate the Storm on Thursday we might excuse the Dragons a little, but if not then we’ll know that the Dragons deserve this talk. Still the sharks look good coming into this game and are worth the $1.60 price tag with Sportsbet which includes getting paid out if your team scores a try in the first 5 minutes, which I think the Sharks are the team most likely to do so that is reasonably priced.